IRIQ DESCENDS INTO CHAOS

June 16, 2014

Iraq Descends into Chaos

The Islamic State of Iraq and greater Syria (ISIS), recently achieved stunning military victories in northern Iraq. The Sunni Islamic group only has 2,500 fighters in Iraq. But last Monday, their low numbers did not prevent them from capturing Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city. The next day they swept into Saddam Hussein’s hometown of Tikrit. Hours later, ISIS forces rolled into Baiji, seizing control of the country’s largest oil refinery.

All eyes are now on Iraq’s capital, Baghdad, which is only 60 miles away from the war front. If Baghdad should fall to ISIS, all is lost. The astonishing advances of ISIS have brought into question America’s eight-year-long involvement in Iraq. During the war we lost 4,400 soldiers, had 32,000 wounded and spend over a trillion dollars on the effort.

One of the most embarrassing aspects of the fighting is the high desertion rate of the Iraqi military. In the case of Mosul, 30,000 Iraqi soldiers ran away from 800 ISIS fighters. The United States spent about $20.2 billion to train and equip Iraqi security forces to defend their country, and at the first shot, they stripped off their uniforms and handed their weapons to the enemy in exchange for “safe passage” home.

We now have the image of American made humvees being driven across the Iraqi desert by radical Islamists. At least one ultramodern Blackhawk and some Kiowa helicopters are also under their control. It is only a matter time before we find some of these weapons used against our soldiers in neighboring conflicts.

The price of oil rose to nearly $106 per barrel—the highest in nearly a year—as the insurgency raised the risk of disruption to supplies. A big concern is the Ceyhan-Kirkuk pipeline, which carries 1.6 million barrels per day. If the fighting should turn into a regional war, there is no limit to how high the price of crude oil may rise.

The hostility could disrupt the fragile balance of power that has been built-up between the Kurdish and Iraqi governments. Kurdistan is an ethnic minority state in the far north of the country. The Kurds have done well since 2003, running their own affairs while being given a fixed percentage of Iraq’s oil revenue. The establishment of an oppressive Islamic state in the south would eliminate the incentive for the Kurds to remain part of a failed Iraq.

The U.S. military is considering a number of options to help slow the advance of ISIS, including the possibility of conducting airstrikes with drones or manned aircraft. With polls showing the American people sick of warfare, it is unlikely we will pledge ground forces to the conflict.

The Obama Administration doesn’t trust Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. His autocratic measures are widely blamed for helping to motivate the Islamic rebels. When we pulled out in 2011, Maliki had promised to share power with religious and ethnic minority groups. Since then, his government has alienated the country’s Sunni community—which feels excluded by his Shiite-led government. Maliki had already lost control of much of Western Iraq to ISIS last year. The evaporation of the army in the north leaves him only controlling the Baghdad area and the southern Tigris and Euphrates River Valley. Maliki’s only trump card is the support he might receive from Iran.

The conflict in Iran is a small part of the advancement that Islamists are making in the Middle East. If American forces should pull out of Afghanistan, there can be no doubt that its corrupt government will fall to the resurging Taliban. Libya is another nation headed down this same path.

The goals of radical Islam are currently running in conflict with the global peace that the Antichrist will establish in the first part of the Tribulation. I think what will change the situation is the crushing blow key Muslim nations will receive as they back the Gog/Magog attack against Israel. The fact that we are seeing radicals take over the region, may be an indication that the time of the invasion is drawing near.

“And the angel of the LORD said unto her, Behold, thou art with child, and shalt bear a son, and shalt call his name Ishmael; because the LORD hath heard thy affliction. And he will be a wild man; his hand will be against every man, and every man’s hand against him; and he shall dwell in the presence of all his brethren” (Genesis 16:11-12).

--Todd